Ukraine claims six Su-34s hit at Borisoglebsk airfield in Voronezh region

Civilian casualties of russian strikes on 15 October and the night of 16 October — from official reports as of the morning of 16.10; data are incomplete and may rise. Reports partly overlap, so they were not added into a total:

• Lutsk (Volyn region), 14.10 — 6 killed, 13 injured (including 1 child); final toll at 17:42 14.10, search and rescue completed (Volyn RMA, Lutsk City Council)
• Kropyvnytskyi (Kirovohrad region), evening of 14.10 — 3 killed, 6 injured; the largest attack on the region (about 360 drones, 26 locations) (Kirovohrad RMA, Andrii Raikovych; State Emergency Service)
• Dnipropetrovsk region, 15.10 — 3 killed (2 in Novooleksandrivka community, 1 in Slovianka and Petropavlivka communities), 1 woman injured in Pavlohrad; strikes with glide bombs and drones (National Police, via DniproTV, 12:02)
• Uman (Cherkasy region), night of 16.10 — 5 injured (3 hospitalised), fire in an apartment block; a man was pulled from the rubble (National Police, via ArmyInform, 09:22)
• Kherson region, 14–15.10 — 1 killed, 5 injured; drone strikes on Kherson and Bilozerka (National Police, via LB.ua, 10:23 15.10)
• Manevychi (Volyn region), night of 16.10 — 2 injured, the fate of five more people is being established; 370,000 customers without power in Lutsk and the region at 08:00 (Volyn RMA, Roman Romaniuk)
• Rivne, night of 16.10 — 7 people sought help, no hospitalisation needed; residential buildings damaged (local authorities, via Slovo i Dilo, 09:48)
• Kyiv, night of 14.10 — according to previously published data 3–4 killed and 22–32 injured; no final toll found in open sources

Kropyvnytskyi and Kirovohrad region, massive drone attack from the evening of 14 to the morning of 15 October. According to the Kirovohrad RMA (Andrii Raikovych) and the State Emergency Service, the region suffered its most massive attack since the start of the full-scale invasion: about 360 drones over more than ten hours, strikes on 26 locations. In Kropyvnytskyi three people were killed and six injured; businesses, logistics and warehouse facilities and residential buildings were hit, and fires broke out. Znamianka, Oleksandriia, Pomichna and other communities were also struck. Two deaths were reported first; the number later rose to three. The same day Ukrenergo reported one of the largest attacks on substations.

Western Ukraine, night of 16 October. russian drones, including jet-powered ones, attacked Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil and Cherkasy regions. According to the Volyn RMA (Roman Romaniuk), about 20 targets were aimed at Volyn; in Lutsk a business with foreign investment was damaged, in Manevychi a private business, and two people were injured. In Rivne residential buildings were damaged and seven people sought help. In Uman a drone fell on an apartment block: five injured, a man was pulled from the rubble, and retail warehouses also caught fire. In Chortkiv a manufacturing plant was damaged; no data on casualties. Data as of 08:00–09:48 16.10; the attack was still ongoing.

On 15 October 304 combat clashes were recorded (General Staff report as of 08:00 16.10; at 22:00 15.10, according to ISW as retold, there were 244). russia carried out 83 airstrikes with 271 KAB guided bombs, used 7,059 kamikaze drones and carried out 2,551 shellings, 76 of them with MLRS. The named directions account for only 147 of the 304 attacks; the report does not break down the rest. Attacks by direction:

• 83 airstrikes
• 271 guided aerial bombs (KAB)
• 7,059 kamikaze drones
• 2,551 shelling attacks on positions and settlements, incl. 76 with MLRS

Attacks by direction (the named directions account for only 147 of 304):

• Pokrovsk — 60
• Kostiantynivka — 27
• South Slobozhanskyi — 22
• Huliaipole — 20
• Lyman — 8
• Kupiansk and Kramatorsk — 3 each
• Sloviansk and Orikhiv — 2 each
• North Slobozhanskyi (and Kursk) — no assaults (1 airstrike with 3 KABs, 64 shellings)
• Oleksandrivka and Prydniprovskyi — no assaults

Ukraine’s General Staff reports russia’s losses for 15–16 October (total ~1,561,020 personnel; no independent confirmation):

• personnel — 1,790
• tanks — 0
• armoured vehicles — 15
• artillery systems — 9
• MLRS — 1
• air defence systems — 1
• aircraft — 6
• operational-tactical UAVs — 693
• vehicles (incl. tankers) — 230
• unmanned ground vehicles — 3
• special equipment — 3

On the night of 16 October russia launched 149 strike UAVs: Shaheds (108 of them jet-powered), Gerberas and Parodiyas (not counted separately in the report); no missiles in the report. According to the Air Force as of 09:30, 114 drones were shot down or suppressed (77 jet-powered Shaheds and other types); 27 hits were recorded at 24 locations, debris at 14. The attack was still ongoing. The drones, including jet-powered ones, flew west: Volyn, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil and Cherkasy regions (see “War victims”). For comparison: during the day on 15.10 (07:30–18:00), according to ISW as retold, there were 138 drones, 90 of them jet-powered, with 125 shot down or suppressed (not independently verified).

✈️📏 335 km from Ukrainian-held territory ≈Borisoglebsk airfield (Voronezh region, russia), night of 15 October. Ukraine’s General Staff reported that explosions and a fire were recorded, six Su-34 aircraft sustained varying degrees of damage, and work on key military targets continues. Ukraine’s Navy (Facebook, 15.10) named the Neptune system as the weapon and reported six Su-34M destroyed and damaged flight-support equipment; at around 14:55–14:59 Zelensky clarified: four Su-34s destroyed, two hit, and the aircraft had been loaded with glide bombs. He also mentioned a hit on a drone storage and launch site in Oryol region and targets in the Black Sea (without details, outside the list of confirming bodies). According to ISW (as retold by Daily Kos), satellite images from 15.10 show damage to four Su-34s; the distance from the border is about 267 km. The local authorities gave no reaction: Governor Alexander Gusev cited 33 drones and “several jet-powered aerial targets” shot down, with debris damaging outbuildings and a car; he said nothing about the airfield. Conclusion: the strike is confirmed by the General Staff, but the number of aircraft destroyed differs between official statements and is not yet independently confirmed.

local authorities silentLocal authorities (Voronezh region governor Aleksandr Gusev, 15.10): 33 drones and “several jet-powered aerial targets” shot down; debris damaged outbuildings of private houses and a car; did not mention the airfield (according to The Moscow Times and Novaya Gazeta Europe)

🔥unverified📏 465 km from Ukrainian-held territory ≈Ryazan refinery (Rosneft), Ryazan, night of 15 October. Governor Pavel Malkov confirmed that the region came under a “mass drone attack” and that “a fire broke out on the grounds of the oil refinery”; at another business in the city a warehouse and vehicles were damaged, preliminarily no casualties, and classes in schools and kindergartens were cancelled in part of the city. Axios (15.10, 12:42 UTC), citing an unnamed Ukrainian official, reported an overnight strike on a russian refinery without naming the facility; ISW assesses that Ukraine “likely” struck the Ryazan refinery. Neither the General Staff nor the SBU, HUR, SSO, USF, Operational Command “South”, StratCom or Zaluzhnyi had officially confirmed it as of the morning of 16.10 (results are often published later). The local authorities effectively confirmed the fire at the refinery, but this is not official confirmation; the extent of the damage is unknown. The Ryazan refinery is one of the largest in russia, ~17.1 million t per year (according to Obozrevatel).

local authorities confirmLocal authorities (Ryazan region governor Pavel Malkov, 15.10): the region came under a mass UAV attack and a fire broke out on the refinery grounds; a warehouse and vehicles were damaged at another business; preliminarily no casualties

💥📏 50 km from Ukrainian-held territory ≈Strike results: UAV infrastructure facilities, 14–15 October. Ukraine’s General Staff (Telegram, as retold by ArmyInform 15.10, 16:16) reported hitting a concentration of personnel of the Rubikon UAV unit near Novokostiantynivka in Zaporizhzhia region and a storage, preparation and launch site for strike drones near Donetsk (occupied territories); the extent of the damage is being established. It also recalled the results of 13.10: four UAV storage shelters near Hvardiiske in Crimea were damaged and secondary detonation was recorded. Novokostiantynivka is not marked on the map: no reliable coordinates were found. A separate search for statements by the occupation authorities is not included in this issue; the material read contains no such statements, so the strike is neither confirmed nor denied by the other side.

local authorities silentLocal authorities (occupation administration of Donetsk, 14–15.10): no statements about this facility found in the material read

As of the morning of 16 October no official confirmation (General Staff, SBU, HUR, SSO, USF, Operational Command “South”, StratCom, Zaluzhnyi) of strikes on the Ryazan refinery was found (see above); strikes previously marked on the map on the Moscow region, Rostov-on-Don, data centres and the Ukhta refinery also remain without official confirmation.

unverifiedISW (assessment for 15.10, as retold by Daily Kos; the ISW text itself could not be read): the group believes Ukraine “likely” struck the Ryazan refinery on the night of 15.10; according to DeepState, russia advanced 47 km² in the week to 13.10 — the most since the start of September; Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Kupiansk and south-west of Orikhiv. The Kremlin, according to ISW, rejects the very idea of an energy ceasefire. Additionally: russian drones likely hit four civilian vessels in the Black Sea, including two commercial tankers in Romanian waters (14–15.10); an anonymous CNN source says Ukraine has run out of Patriot interceptors.

unverifiedStarlink and the refinery. According to Axios (Barak Ravid, 15.10, 12:42 UTC), citing an unnamed Ukrainian official, Starlink and Starshield services, which had been restricted for more than a day, were “restored to full capacity”; after that Ukraine struck a russian refinery, defying Trump’s demand to stop such strikes. Kyiv explained the resumption of strikes by russia continuing to hit Ukrainian energy after the “energy ceasefire” Trump announced on 11.10. It is still unclear within the Trump administration and in Ukraine whether the US president ordered the restrictions.

restored to full capacity

On 15 October Zelensky (in an interview with the Financial Times, as retold by ZN.ua) announced the resumption of strikes on russian refineries after a short pause for the “energy ceasefire”: russia meanwhile attacked energy infrastructure, including substations. Earlier Kyiv had said it stopped strikes on refineries on 11.10 on condition of reciprocity.

unverifiedAid. According to ISW (as retold by Daily Kos, citing a Ukrainska Pravda post), on 15.10 Britain is providing additional Storm Shadow missiles. Quantity and timing were not given; the primary source was not read.

🗣️🤝Zelensky and negotiations. On Newsmax (interview published on 15 October) Trump said, according to the Kyiv Independent, that he is “not a big fan” of Zelensky; according to LB.ua, he also said Zelensky “doesn’t want to make a deal”, that it is easier to make a deal with Putin, and added that nobody had told him Ukrainians are happy about missile strikes on their homes, and that Ukraine needs elections (he did not explain the link to the attacks). Context: Trump has previously called for Ukraine to elect a new president; in response to the diesel deal Zelensky called the US decision “weak”.

I'm not a big fan of Zelensky.

🛢️⛽Refinery strikes. In the same Newsmax interview (15.10) Trump called Ukraine’s strikes on russian refineries a “disgrace” and said they push up world oil prices and that Ukraine does not necessarily have to strike there (quotes as retold in Ukrainian by ZN.ua). Context: energy experts link the rise in fuel prices mainly to Iranian strikes on refineries in the Persian Gulf; ahead of the 3 November elections Trump is interested in lower prices, and the US earlier allowed russia to export diesel despite sanctions.

🕊️unverified Iran. No new statements by Trump on Iran could be found for 15 October and the morning of 16 October. For reference: according to Axios (13.10, citing sources), Netanyahu and Trump discussed a possible new operation against Iran before the elections, and Trump had earlier said he would not attack Iran before the midterms.

😅light noteNo verified light-hearted episode from Trump’s day could be found, so we are not making one up.

No new statements by US officials (other than Trump) or the PRC on the strikes on Ukraine and the overnight attack for 15–16 October were found in the sources read.

🗣️unverifiedVladimir Putin, president of russia, 15 October (location not given; according to Espreso citing RIA Novosti’s Telegram, 20:16) on Ukraine’s strikes on refineries: “nothing significant, but they keep going”; claimed that Ukraine “took the first step” and began attacking russian electronic trading platforms, and that russia “began to respond”, and that “they shouldn’t have started” and “should have thought about the consequences”. He named no specific measures. Context: russia has been striking Ukrainian energy on a massive scale since 2022, and Kyiv refrained from refinery strikes on 11–14.10 according to Zelensky; Putin did not mention these facts.

🗣️Sergei Lavrov, russia’s foreign minister, 15 October, press conference after a visit to Azerbaijan (recording released by russia’s Foreign Ministry, according to Gordon): russia will not agree to a ceasefire that would let Zelensky “come to his senses” and rearm; claimed that the US proposed a diesel deal that russia accepted, while Zelensky rejected it in order to continue strikes on refineries, and that this is a “direct and crude challenge” to Trump; said he had not seen the four-point peace plan Western media are writing about. Context: Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” on 11.10, Ukraine says it refrained from refinery strikes while russia kept hitting energy infrastructure; the Kremlin admits the diesel deal is not linked to peace talks.

🗣️unverifiedDmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, 15 October (according to Obozrevatel citing russian media): “there was in fact no moratorium on the part of Kyiv on strikes on russian energy facilities”; called Europe’s position on the US–russian diesel deal “destructive”; accused Kyiv and Zelensky personally of not wanting peace. Context: according to Zelensky and Euromaidan Press, no Ukrainian strikes on refineries were recorded from 11.10, while russia kept hitting Ukraine’s energy system.