Trump suspended the “hellish sanctions” under the Graham law two days before they were due to start

Civilian victims of russian strikes on 16 October and the night of 17 October — per official reports as of the morning of 17.10; the data are incomplete and may rise. The reports partly overlap, so they are not added into a total:

• Kharkiv and Kharkiv region, 16.10 and the night of 17.10 — 2 killed (a 71-year-old woman and a 58-year-old man), 41 injured (including 3 children: a 13-year-old girl and boys aged 12 and 13); strikes on five districts of the city and 10 settlements in the region: 6 missiles, 1 KAB, drones (Kharkiv RMA, Oleh Syniehubov, via LB.ua, 08:52 17.10)
• Dnipropetrovsk region, 16.10 — 2 killed (a 74-year-old woman in Nikopol district; a man during the evening attack on Dnipro), 6 injured; almost 30 strikes with drones, artillery and KABs (Dnipropetrovsk RMA, Oleksandr Hanzha, via Suspilne Dnipro, 22:15 16.10). On the night of 17.10 in Dnipro, according to DSnews, an enterprise was damaged and 1 person was reported killed — whether this is the same case is not specified in the material read
• Kherson region, 16–17.10 — 1 killed (an emergency medical team driver), 19 injured (including an 11-year-old girl and a one-month-old baby; the injured include a paramedic and a nurse); an airstrike and repeated attacks on Korabelnyi district (Kherson RMA, Oleksandr Prokudin, via DSnews, 09:42 17.10)
• Sloviansk (Donetsk region), 17.10 — 1 killed, 10 injured; KABs on apartment blocks (a local Telegram channel, via DSnews; no official confirmation found)
• Zaporizhzhia, night of 17.10 — 5 injured (including a child); apartment blocks and cars damaged (Zaporizhzhia RMA, Mykhailo Semikin, via DSnews)
• Rivne region, night of 17.10 — 2 injured; a strike on an enterprise, fire (via DSnews)

Kharkiv and Kharkiv region, 16–17 October. According to the head of the Kharkiv RMA Oleh Syniehubov (Telegram, as retold by LB.ua at 08:52 17.10), over the day russia struck Kharkiv (Osnovianskyi, Industrialnyi, Shevchenkivskyi, Novobavarskyi and Nemyshlianskyi districts) and 10 settlements in the region, including Zolochiv, Derhachi and Hnylytsia Persha, with six missiles, one KAB, a Lancet, four FPV drones and 142 drones of unidentified type. Two people were killed and 41 injured, including three children. Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported a series of Banderol hits in Slobidskyi and Nemyshlianskyi districts, at least five hits in Nemyshlianskyi and more than 100 windows blown out in residential buildings; on the evening of 16.10 the number of injured in the city was 15 (DSnews), and by the morning it had risen to 41 across the region. There are no final figures.

Kherson region, 16–17 October. According to the head of the Kherson RMA Oleksandr Prokudin (via DSnews, 09:42 17.10), an airstrike killed the driver of an emergency medical team, and 19 more people were injured, including an 11-year-old girl and a one-month-old baby. The russians attacked Korabelnyi district of Kherson twice, starting at about 4:00; the injured include a paramedic and a nurse, whose condition is assessed as moderate. Separately, over the previous day (RMA report, 16.10) two people were killed and six injured in Kherson region — these figures for different periods were not added together.

On 16 October 238 combat clashes were recorded (General Staff report as of 08:00 17.10; at 22:00 16.10 there were 208). russia carried out 71 airstrikes with 261 KABs, used 7,433 kamikaze drones and carried out 2,699 shellings. The named directions account for only 120 of the 238 attacks; the report does not break down the rest. Attacks by direction:

• 71 airstrikes
• 261 guided aerial bombs (KAB)
• 7,433 kamikaze drones
• 2,699 shelling attacks on positions and settlements

Attacks by direction (the named directions account for only 120 of 238):

• Pokrovsk — 30
• South Slobozhanskyi — 25
• Kostiantynivka — 18
• Huliaipole — 13
• North Slobozhanskyi — 12
• Orikhiv — 7
• Sloviansk — 6
• Lyman — 5
• Oleksandrivka — 2
• Kupiansk and Kramatorsk — 1 each
• Prydniprovskyi — no offensive actions

Ukraine’s General Staff reports russian losses for 16–17 October (total ~1,562,970 personnel; no independent confirmation):

• personnel — 1,950
• tanks — 1
• armoured vehicles — 2
• artillery systems — 24
• MLRS — 4
• air defence systems — 2
• aircraft and helicopters — 0
• operational-tactical UAVs — 1,396
• vehicles (incl. tankers) — 329
• unmanned ground vehicles — 4
• special equipment — 2

On the night of 17 October russia launched 332 strike UAVs (31 of them jet-powered): Shaheds, S-8000 “Banderol”, “Gerbera” and “Parodiya” (not counted separately), four Kalibrs from Novorossiysk, as well as Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and Kh-22/32 from Crimea — the number of these missiles is not given in the report. According to the Air Force as of 08:00, 293 targets were shot down or suppressed (4 Kalibrs and 289 drones, 23 of them jet-powered); 22 hits, debris at three locations. The attack was still ongoing. Aftermath according to local authorities: Kryvyi Rih — a combined strike with ballistic and cruise missiles, a hit on an industrial enterprise, fire, no casualties (Oleksandr Vilkul; Dnipropetrovsk RMA); Ternopil region — a strike on an energy facility (RMA head Taras Pastukh); in Zhytomyr region several energy facilities, a lyceum, an apartment block and warehouses were damaged; in Vinnytsia and Zhytomyr — power outages and electric transport halted (via DSnews). For casualties see “War victims”.

🔥unverified📏 2,505 km from Ukrainian-held territory ≈Surgut district, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (Western Siberia), daytime 16 October. According to Ukrainian OSINT channels (Exilenova+, Supernova+), the Chernomyrdin Surgut condensate stabilisation plant (Gazprom Pererabotka, design capacity 12 million tonnes a year) was hit; the distance to the Ukrainian border varies across media from 2,400 to 3,000 km. No official confirmation from the General Staff, SBU, HUR, USF or any other confirming body was found at the time of the issue, so the strike is marked as unconfirmed. The local authorities effectively acknowledged the aftermath of the attack: the governor reported a fire at an industrial facility in the district but did not name the plant or specify the damage — this is partial confirmation of the aftermath, but not of the facility itself. Videos of the fires, according to media, have not been independently geolocated. No casualties were reported.

local authorities: indirectLocal authorities (Governor of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (Yugra) Ruslan Kukharuk, 16.10): a drone attack caused a fire at an “industrial facility” in Surgut district; emergency services are on site and the damage is being assessed; the plant was not named. Separately, it was reported that debris damaged an industrial facility in the okrug (according to The Moscow Times); Rosaviatsia restricted flights at six airports in the okrug (according to ZN.ua)

💥📏 25 km from Ukrainian-held territory ≈Strike results: radars, EW and communication towers, 15–16 October. Ukraine’s General Staff (report at 16:11 16.10, via Obozrevatel) claimed hits on two radars near Ozarovnoye and Trubchevsk and an EW station near Novozybkov (Bryansk region, russia), as well as two telecommunication towers with antenna equipment near Olenivka in occupied Crimea. Earlier the same day (12:34, via LB.ua) the General Staff reported a hit on the night of 16.10 on a 55Zh6U Nebo-U radar near the village of Magri in Krasnodar krai: a fire broke out in the area of the facility; the General Staff puts the station’s value at about $100 million (unverified estimate). No independent imagery or local authority statements about these facilities were found — the hits are confirmed only by the General Staff.

local authorities silentLocal authorities (Governor of Bryansk region; Krasnodar krai authorities, 15–16.10): no statements about these specific facilities for 15–16.10 found in the material read (the Gazeta.ru roundup of the aftermath of the 16.10 attacks could not be read)

As of the morning of 17 October no official confirmation (General Staff, SBU, HUR, SSO, USF, Operational Command “South”, StratCom, Zaluzhnyi) of the strike on Surgut district was found. Nor have confirmations appeared for the Ryazan refinery (15.10) or the previously flagged strikes on Rostov-on-Don and the Moscow region; no new “strike results” beyond the two above were found. Confirmations often appear later in the day.

unverifiedISW (assessment for 16.10, as retold by the Kyiv Post; the ISW text itself was not read): the group believes that russia, “having failed to achieve any of its original war aims”, is looking increasingly worse on the battlefield, and Ukrainian advances contradict the kremlin’s claims of inevitable victory. ISW records advances by Ukrainian forces in the Kostiantynivka–Druzhkivka area and russian advances in northern Sumy region and near Sloviansk. ISW also believes that the kremlin is using the SVR statement to divert attention from the army’s failures, to threaten Britain and France with nuclear strikes and possibly later to blame Ukraine for a “radiological incident” of russian origin, as well as to lay the groundwork for a limited forced call-up of reservists.

having failed to achieve any of its original war aims

unverifiedContrast with the kremlin’s claims: at a meeting on 16.10 Putin and Gerasimov spoke of an offensive that had “accelerated” and of 6,500 km² and 310–320 settlements since the start of the year (see the section “What they say in the swamps”). ISW in the same review, by contrast, assesses Ukrainian advances near Kostiantynivka; Ukraine’s General Staff in its report for 17.10 does not report the loss of any settlements.

💰Sanctions under the “Graham law”. By an executive order of Friday, 16 October, implementing the “Lindsey Graham Sanctioning russia and Iran Act of 2026” (Trump signed it on 18 September), the US president formally imposed and then immediately suspended 100% tariffs on goods from the largest buyers of russian oil and gas, 500% tariffs on russian energy and sanctions on a number of russian entities. The legal basis is section 115 of the act, which allows the president to waive the measures subject to a written certification to Congress that this is in the US national interest. The suspension remains in force until Trump or the Secretary of State decides otherwise; the order does not touch previously imposed sanctions. Ukrinform (06:33 17.10) and Newsweek link the decision to Trump’s diesel deal with Putin of 9 October; the order itself does not mention diesel, and the White House has not confirmed a causal link. According to Ukrinform, 12 senators from both parties this week urged Trump to cancel the deal with Putin and enforce the law; Republican congressman Michael McCaul called the intention to lower diesel prices understandable but warned that easing pressure on russian oil would “only fund the Kremlin’s war machine”. Experts cited by Novaya Gazeta Europe consider the law largely symbolic, but the first significant increase in pressure on the kremlin during Trump’s term.

🛰️Starlink. According to Axios (Barak Ravid, 16.10, 18:52 UTC), Trump denied that his administration had restricted the satellite system Ukraine uses, responding to a Reuters report that the order to throttle it came from the White House. Axios notes that this week’s restrictions reportedly left Ukraine unable to intercept russian strike drones for a day; a Ukrainian official told Axios that SpaceX believes the White House was involved; Elon Musk wrote that Starshield is owned and controlled by the US government, and the limits are set by the military and the president. Axios links the restrictions to the dispute over Trump’s decision to ease sanctions on russian oil.

I just checked this morning — it wasn't us

📝💰Sanctions against russia. On 16 October Trump signed an executive order suspending tariffs and sanctions under the “Graham law” (details in the section “Diplomacy, sanctions & aid”). In the document he declared a certification to Congress that waiving these measures “at this stage” is in the US interest. No public explanation by Trump of the order itself was found in the material read; on 9 October, according to Newsweek, he said of the diesel deal: “We need oil for the world, and this is diesel, which is what we need”.

🕊️unverifiedZelensky and Putin. Speaking to journalists outside the White House in Washington on 16 October, before flying to Georgia (according to TSN), Trump repeated that Putin wants to end the war, and when asked about Zelensky said he knows “all the details” and will make them public at some point; he did not specify which. According to Ukrainian media, he also accused Zelensky of being unwilling to negotiate. Separately, he said he does not know whether Putin will come to the G20 summit but would be glad to see him. Context: Zelensky replied that it is easier for him to negotiate with the US president than with Putin, and that he sees no readiness on the kremlin’s part for serious negotiations.

🛢️unverifiedStrikes on refineries. According to a Ukrainska Pravda headline of 16.10 (the text was not read), Trump said that russia has “plenty of targets” and Ukraine does not necessarily have to hit oil refineries. The same day Ukraine struck Surgut district (see the section on strikes on russia; the strike has not been officially confirmed).

🛰️Starlink. Speaking to journalists on 16 October, Trump denied White House involvement in the restrictions on satellite communications in Ukraine (according to Axios; location not given).

I don't know if it was anybody, because it wasn't me and I don't think it was Elon

🛢️ Iran. No new statements by Trump on Iran for 16–17 October were found in the material read. No verified funny episode from Trump’s day could be found, so there is no such item today.

Michael McCaul, Republican congressman from Texas, in a post on X (16–17.10, according to Newsweek) said he understands “the desire to bring down diesel prices”, but easing restrictions on russian oil would “only fund the Kremlin’s war machine”. No statements by Chinese officials on this were found.

only fund the Kremlin’s war machine

🗣️Vladimir Putin, president of russia, on 16 October at the command post of the joint group of forces (location not given), during a meeting with commanders. According to Lenta.ru, he ordered continued massive and group strikes on Ukraine’s military-industrial complex and logistics hubs, calling them a response to attacks on russian industrial and energy facilities. He claimed the offensive had “accelerated”, that since the start of the year russia had “liberated” about 6,500 km² and 310–320 settlements (the figure differs between Lenta.ru and Izvestia), that Luhansk region is fully under russian control, and that ukraine controls just over 10% of Donetsk region and 16.5% of Zaporizhzhia region. He also said that the “buffer zone” in the border areas will not be a subject of possible peace talks. Context: these figures are claimed by russia and not independently verified; ISW assesses that russia has not achieved any of its original goals, and Kyiv and Western governments usually call massive strikes on civilian infrastructure war crimes.

🗣️unverifiedValery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of russia’s armed forces, on 16 October at the same meeting (according to Lenta.ru). He claimed that strikes are hitting bridges, railway infrastructure and data centres that, in his words, serve the Ukrainian armed forces; that russian air defence destroyed more than 15,000 aerial targets in September and shoots down more than 98% of Ukrainian drones daily; that Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka has been “liberated” and russian troops have entered Bilozerske, where street fighting continues; and that Ukrainian counterattacks in the Lyman direction have been thwarted. Context: ISW for 16.10, by contrast, records Ukrainian advances in the Kostiantynivka–Druzhkivka area; Ukraine’s General Staff in its report for 17.10 does not report the loss of these settlements; 98% is a russian estimate without evidence.

🗣️unverifiedDmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary, 16 October. According to headlines in russian media (Vedomosti, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 16.10; texts not read) and Ukrainska Pravda, the kremlin agreed with Trump that Zelensky does not seek peace and is not ready for concessions. Context: the same day Putin said the “buffer zone” will not be a subject of negotiations, and Zelensky said he sees no readiness on the kremlin’s part for serious talks.