Trump: the sides are “very close” to a deal. Rubio: “nobody should assume they are on the verge”

Civilian casualties of russian strikes on 31 October–1 November, as reported by the authorities (State Emergency Service, regional governors, via Kyiv Independent and Ukrinform); morning reports for 2 November could not be found, so the figures are incomplete and may rise. According to Kyiv Independent, in the 24 hours to 1 November 1 person was killed and at least 47 injured (not counting Koziatyn, which was hit later):

• Koziatyn (Vinnytsia region), 1.11 — 2 killed (1 of them a child), 4 injured (3 of them children); a drone hit between a dormitory and the teaching building of a vocational school
• Donetsk region (incl. Sloviansk), 24 hours to the morning of 1.11 — 1 killed, 8 injured
• Dnipropetrovsk region, 24 hours to 1.11 — 17 injured (3 of them children)
• Sumy region, 24 hours to 1.11 — 12 injured (per Kyiv Independent; Ukrinform’s morning report at 08:33 gave 6)
• Kharkiv region, 24 hours to 1.11 — 7 injured (1 of them a child)
• Zaporizhzhia region, 24 hours to 1.11 — 6 injured (699 attacks, Ukrinform 07:23)
• Poltava region — 1 injured (a 14-year-old child); Volyn — 1 injured; Kyiv region — 1 injured

Koziatyn, a railway town in Vinnytsia region, central Ukraine, 1 November: a russian drone struck between a dormitory and the teaching building of a vocational school that houses displaced people. The State Emergency Service and regional governor Nataliia Zabolotna reported two dead, among them a 13-year-old girl. Four were injured — two five-year-old girls, a 16-year-old boy and a 24-year-old man — and all were taken to hospital. Two cars caught fire; the blaze was put out. The drone type has not been officially named; no day of mourning has been reported.

205 combat clashes on 1 November — level with the 30-day average (207) and 18% more than on 31 October (173); at 22:00 on 1 November the General Staff had counted 191. russia carried out 71 air strikes with 235 guided glide bombs (KABs), 2,256 artillery and other attacks, 26 of them with multiple rocket launchers, and used 6,578 kamikaze drones — the fewest since 25 October. Named directions account for 83 of the 205 assaults; one more assault, 2 glide-bomb strikes (6 bombs) and 118 attacks were attributed to the North Slobozhanskyi and Kursk directions and are not in the chart. Assaults by direction:

• Pokrovsk — 31
• Kostiantynivka — 20
• Lyman — 10
• South Slobozhanskyi — 8
• Huliaipole — 7
• Kupiansk, Sloviansk — 3 each
• Orikhiv — 1
• Kramatorsk, Oleksandrivka and Prydniprovskyi — no assaults

Ukraine’s General Staff reports russian losses for 1–2 November (total ~1,592,770 personnel; no independent confirmation; figures being updated):

• personnel — 2,500 (the most since at least 5.09, when our data begin)
• tanks — 1
• armoured vehicles — 7
• artillery systems — 46 (the most since 25.10)
• MLRS — 2
• air defence systems — 1
• aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles — unchanged
• operational-tactical UAVs — 936
• vehicles (incl. tankers) — 371
• unmanned ground vehicles — 9
• special equipment — 2

Ukraine’s General Staff said (Ukrinform, 08:03 2.11) that russian forces used the humanitarian pause in Oleshky — an occupied town on the left bank of the Dnipro opposite Kherson — to reinforce their positions. According to Kyiv Independent, Ukrainian forces evacuated 167 residents, including 22 children, from the right bank of Kherson region during the ceasefire. Zelensky thanked Melania Trump for mediating the Oleshky ceasefire (Ukrinform, 23:51 31.10). The General Staff’s claim about the use of the pause could not be verified independently.

unverifiedAccording to Zelensky (Ukrinform, 14:23 1.11), Ukraine’s defence forces liberated more territory in October than russia captured: in Ukrinform’s account, 96.2 sq km — 10.4 sq km more than russia’s gains. The General Staff puts russia’s October losses at 54,400 personnel — according to Kyiv Independent, the heaviest month since the full-scale invasion began. These are Ukrainian claims: the General Staff did not confirm changes on the front line in this issue, and maps were not requested.

On 31 October russian aircraft destroyed the building of the Kramatorsk city council executive committee on Myru Square (according to Kyiv Independent, citing Oleksandr Honcharenko, head of the Kramatorsk city military administration, on Facebook). There is no information on casualties from the strike on the building; Suspilne reported wounded civilians elsewhere in the city without giving numbers.

Overnight into 2 November: 193 attack drones — less than half the previous night (433) and about the weekly average (187). 154 (80%) were shot down or jammed — the lowest share since 31 October; drones hit 26 locations, the most since 22 October, with debris falling at 9 more. Among them were 75 jet-powered Shaheds plus Gerbera and Parodiya decoys; the report lists no missiles, and more than 6 drones were still in the air. Air Force data as of 08:00, report issued at 07:47.

During the day on 1 November (06:30–19:00) russia launched another 326 attack drones (55 jet-powered) and six S-8000 Banderol jet-powered missiles: 274 drones (46 jet-powered) and all six S-8000s were shot down or jammed (Air Force, Ukrinform 19:25). That followed a night of 433 drones (371 downed; details in yesterday’s issue). Over the day, energy facilities were attacked in at least seven regions — Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne and Poltava; emergency power cuts were introduced and, according to Zelensky, hundreds of thousands of families were left without electricity.

Over the past week, according to Zelensky (Ukrinform, 11:58 1.11), russia fired almost 2,000 attack drones, more than 1,500 glide bombs and 44 missiles at Ukraine; Ukrinform’s overview gives 1,940 drones, more than 1,580 glide bombs and 44 missiles, 36 of them ballistic. Zelensky called on the US and Europe to speed up deliveries of new air-defence packages, because russia is betting on ballistic missiles this winter.

On the evening of 1 November Ukraine’s “Air Alert” app — the phone app that relays air-raid sirens — was hacked: users received false alerts of nuclear and chemical threats and street fighting. The Air Force said the app had probably been compromised by the enemy and there was no radiation threat; the Vinnytsia regional governor warned people not to follow links. The app’s team confirmed unauthorised access and suspended it temporarily. Who was behind the hack has not been established.

💥📏 80 km from Ukrainian-held territory ≈Night into 31 October: drones and Neptune missiles attacked the Kamensky plant, which makes solid rocket fuel, near Kamensk-Shakhtinsky in russia’s Rostov region. Ukraine’s General Staff reported a hit; on 1 November Zelensky confirmed it, added that a Pantsir-S2 air-defence system and an S-400 command vehicle were also hit, and put the damage at about $70m. This is a Ukrainian claim: there are no independent images or casualty data, and the local authorities are silent — only the Ukrainian side confirms the strike. Coordinates are for the nearest town.

local authorities silentLocal authorities (Rostov region governor / local emergency services, 31.10–1.11): no statements about this facility for the date were found in the material read (the search returned only reports about other days)

🛢️unverified📏 780 km from Ukrainian-held territory ≈Night into 1 November: according to the Telegram channels Exilenova+ and Supernova+ (via Kyiv Independent, 05:25), Lukoil’s refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod region, was on fire after a drone attack. Ukraine’s General Staff, SBU, HUR and other designated sources have not confirmed the strike, so the reports are unverified. Petrol sales limits in the region are an indirect sign of trouble, not confirmation of a hit; no official reaction from the local authorities was found. Coordinates are for the nearest town.

local authorities silentLocal authorities (Nizhny Novgorod region governor, 1.11): no statement by the governor about this strike was found; according to media reports (Ukrinform, 18:16 1.11), petrol sales limits were introduced in the region

💥Ukraine’s General Staff reported hits on four russian depots in the occupied parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk regions (via Kyiv Independent, 1.11; exact locations and results were not named in the material read, hence no coordinates). No independent confirmation.

local authorities silentLocal authorities (occupation authorities, 31.10): not checked separately: several facilities, exact locations not named in the material read

unverifiedUkrinform’s daily overview (19:49 1.11) relays that over three days Ukrainian strikes reportedly knocked out about 10% of russia’s oil-refining capacity — refineries in Samara and Nizhny Novgorod regions and Bashkortostan (combined capacity 30–33 million tonnes). The overview names no primary source for the estimate, there is no official confirmation of the damage, and neither UK Defence Intelligence nor any other monitor confirmed the figure in the material read.

unverifiedKyiv Independent, citing sources, writes that Ukraine never agreed to pause strikes on russian oil refineries. The sources are anonymous; there is no official statement.

UN (OHCHR/HRMMU): no new monthly report after the September one (15 October: at least 328 civilians killed and 2,105 injured) is on the page, so civilianStats has not changed. No new estimates of russian army recruitment were noticed.

🤝unverifiedIn an interview with the American journalist Tony Perkins (Ukrinform, 21:54 31.10), Zelensky named possible dates for a trilateral technical meeting of Ukraine, the US and russia — 6–10 November in Abu Dhabi. The US proposed the meeting and Ukraine supports it, but the final date and venue have not been confirmed. No confirmation from Washington or Moscow appears in the material read.

🕊️On 31 October Zelensky arrived in Istanbul and discussed with President Erdoğan unblocking the Black Sea and the possibility of holding peace talks in Turkey. Erdoğan said an agreement on the safety of shipping in the Black Sea could give a push to peace efforts.

🏛️The EU’s foreign-policy chief, Kaja Kallas, warned (Ukrinform, 20:59 31.10) that Putin’s return to a G20 summit risks normalising russia’s war crimes in Ukraine. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, called for barring russian athletes from entry after a sports arbitration ruling on ice hockey.

💶unverified Canada announced €500m in support for Ukraine (Ukrinform, 06:20 31.10). Germany’s president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, said China is not interested in a trilateral US–russia–Ukraine summit, according to Ukrinform’s daily overview; the original text was not read.

🕊️Trump believes the sides are “very close” to a deal — that is how, according to Ukrinform, he answered the blogger Benny Johnson (post on X; Ukrinform, 01:47 1.11) when asked whether he would seat Ukrainians and russians at one table at the G20 summit in Miami (Trump National Doral). He said he had not said so before, that the chances of settling the matter are “very good”, though there is “enormous hatred” between the leaders. The English original was not found; the date of the comment is not clear from the material.

🎟️On Halloween, 31 October, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, asked by reporters whether he would invite Zelensky to the G20 summit (14–15 December, Miami) if he had invited Putin, Trump answered, according to Ukrinform: “Yes, no problem.” The English quote was not checked. Rubio had earlier said the decision was Trump’s.

🛑unverifiedOn Iran: no fresh, reliable statements by Trump in the past 24 hours were found.

🖊️light noteAhead of the US midterm elections (3 November), Trump joked, according to Bloomberg as relayed by Ukrinform, that he could become “Mr Veto”: if the Democrats win a majority in Congress they will send him proposals, he will veto them, and in a month or two they will “come back to negotiate”. He added that he hopes he will not have to worry about it. The venue of the speech is not given in the material; there is no English quote.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, at a press conference in Atlanta after the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting (Ukrinform, 1.11), said he does not know whether Putin will come to Miami, nor whether a negotiated settlement is possible — that is exactly what the US is trying to find out; “nobody should assume the sides are on the verge of a deal”. He called russia’s participation in the G20 important for dialogue; there were no separate talks with Lavrov, only a brief conversation. No statements by official China were found for the day.

🗣️unverifiedrussia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, according to Kyiv Independent (overview 1.11), denied a Kyiv Independent report that Moscow had sought a phone call between Putin and Zelensky. The date, venue and Lavrov’s exact words are not given in the material read; no other statements by Putin, Peskov, Lavrov, Ushakov or Medvedev were found for the day. Context: Ukraine and the US are discussing a trilateral meeting, and the kremlin has publicly confirmed neither dates nor format.