Trump, justifying the waiver of sanctions against russia, said Zelensky “doesn’t want to end the war”

Civilian casualties of russian strikes on 18 October and the night of 19 October — according to the authorities’ reports as of the morning of 19.10; the data are incomplete and may rise. The reports cover different periods and partly overlap, so they were not added into a total; updated data for Sloviansk (6 killed on 17–18.10) and Zaporizhzhia for 18.10 could not be read:

• Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka (Donetsk region), 18.10 — 2 killed (one in each city), 2 injured (head of the RMA Vadym Filashkin, Facebook, via Ukrinform, 08:30 19.10)
• Kyiv, night of 19.10 — 1 killed, 8 injured; a ballistic strike on Desnianskyi, Solomianskyi and Dniprovskyi districts (State Emergency Service, via Ukrinform, 07:59 19.10); separately, in the morning in Solomianskyi district — 5 injured as of 09:00 (Kyiv prosecutor’s office, Mayor Vitali Klitschko, via Ukrinform, 09:40)
• Irpin (Kyiv region), 19.10 — 1 killed (a woman), 6 injured (including 3 children), 3 missing; a direct hit on private housing (first deputy mayor Oleksandr Pashchynskyi, head of the RMA Tymur Tkachenko, via Ukrinform, 09:27)
• Kharkiv region, 18.10 — 0 killed, 11 injured (including 2 children, both with an acute stress reaction); 18 settlements under attack (head of the RMA Oleh Syniehubov, via Ukrinform, 09:06 19.10)
• Sumy and Sumy region, over the day to the morning of 19.10 — 3 injured; more than 40 strikes (via Ukrinform, 08:35)
• Rivne region, night of 19.10 — 2 women injured, civilian infrastructure damaged (head of the RMA Oleksandr Koval, via Ukrinform, 08:42)
• Dnipro, night of 19.10 — 1 injured (an 84-year-old woman); private houses damaged, people may be under the rubble (head of the RMA Oleksandr Hanzha, via Ukrinform, 06:33)
• Kherson region, 18.10 — 1 child injured; more than 20 towns and villages under attack (via Ukrinform, 09:02 19.10)

Kyiv, night of 19 October. According to the State Emergency Service (Facebook, via Ukrinform, 07:59), a ballistic strike killed 1 person, whose body was found at the site of a fire in Desnianskyi district, and injured 8. In Desnianskyi district a non-residential building was on fire, and cars and a metro station were damaged; in Solomianskyi district a fire broke out at a medical facility, and the facade and windows of a high-rise were damaged; in Dniprovskyi district an educational facility was damaged. The fires were put out. The KCMA reported the temporary closure of two stations on the red metro line. Later in the morning in Solomianskyi district, according to the Kyiv prosecutor’s office, 5 people were injured (two with shrapnel wounds), and residential buildings, a bank branch, a private clinic and a shopping centre were damaged; Klitschko reported that more than 200 windows were blown out at a diagnostic centre, with no staff hurt. Proceedings have been opened under Article 438 of the Criminal Code. The material does not specify whether these 5 injured are included in the 8.

Irpin, Kyiv region, 19 October. A direct hit on private housing killed a woman and injured 6 people, including 3 children; 3 more people are considered missing — the search operation continues (first deputy mayor Oleksandr Pashchynskyi, Facebook; head of the RMA Tymur Tkachenko, Telegram; via Ukrinform, 09:27). In Bucha district 11 private houses, 6 cars, a production and storage building and an educational facility were damaged; in Vyshhorod district — 5 cars, a house and an infrastructure facility. The material does not mention a day of mourning.

For 18 October the General Staff recorded 204 combat clashes (report as of 08:00 19.10, Ukrinform 08:47; the previous day there were 215 up to 22:00 17.10). russia carried out 82 airstrikes with 273 KABs and one missile strike, used 9,154 kamikaze drones and carried out 3,050 shelling attacks. The named directions account for only 83 of the 204 attacks; the report also mentions 3 assaults in the North Slobozhanskyi/Kursk directions, but its wording about them is ambiguous, so they are not included in the chart. Attacks by direction:

• Pokrovsk — 30
• Kostiantynivka — 21
• Kupiansk — 11
• Huliaipole — 9
• Lyman — 6
• South Slobozhanskyi, Sloviansk — 2 each
• Oleksandrivka, Orikhiv — 1 each
• Kramatorsk and Prydniprovskyi — no assaults

Ukraine’s General Staff reports russian losses for 18–19 October (in total ~1,567,160 personnel; no independent confirmation):

• personnel — 2,100
• tanks — 0
• armoured vehicles — 4
• artillery systems — 24
• MLRS — 0
• air defence systems — 3
• aircraft, helicopters — 0
• operational-tactical UAVs — 1,636
• cruise missiles — 0
• vehicles (incl. tankers) — 332
• unmanned ground vehicles — 6
• special equipment — 3

On the night of 19 October russia launched 269 strike UAVs (59 jet-powered; Shaheds, S-8000 “Banderol”, Gerberas and Parodiyas not counted separately) and missiles: Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles (from Smolensk, Bryansk and Kursk regions) and Iskander-K cruise missiles (from the airspace over Kursk region). The report does not give the number of missiles launched. According to the Air Force as of 09:00, 243 drones (43 jet-powered) and 4 Iskander-Ks were shot down or suppressed; no ballistic missiles were shot down; hits at 25 locations, debris at 8. The attack was ongoing. For comparison: on the night of 18.10 there were 181 weapons.

Energy. Zelensky (Telegram, via Ukrinform, 11:20 18.10) said that since Trump announced the “energy ceasefire” a week ago, russia has attacked Ukraine’s energy and oil and gas sector 76 times. According to him, over the week russia launched almost 2,700 strike drones, about 1,700 KABs and 66 missiles, mostly ballistic; on the night of 18.10 substations were hit in Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi and Odesa regions, leaving tens of thousands of homes without power. The figures are Zelensky’s words, not independently verified.

💥📏 50 km from Ukrainian-held territory ≈Strike results: a storage, preparation and launch site for strike UAVs in the Donetsk area, 17–18 October. Ukraine’s General Staff (Facebook, via Ukrinform, 11:32 18.10) reported that the defence forces hit this facility; beyond the fact of the hit, the result was not detailed. The same report mentions a vehicle repair base of the “Yug” grouping in Sukhodilsk (Luhansk region) and a concentration of personnel near Dubove (Donetsk region); they are not shown on the map. Confirmed only by the General Staff; no independent imagery or statements by the occupation authorities were found; the hit has been neither confirmed nor refuted by other sources. This report did not make it into the issue of 18.10.

local authorities silentLocal authorities (Donetsk occupation authorities, 17–18.10): no statements about this facility found in the material read

As of the morning of 19 October, no official confirmation (General Staff, SBU, HUR, SSO, USF, Operational Command “South”, StratCom, Zaluzhnyi) of the overnight strike on St Petersburg and Leningrad region on 18.10 has been found — only Fire Point’s claim and the governor’s acknowledgement of the fire (see the issue of 18.10); there is also no confirmation for Surgut district (16.10) or the Ryazan refinery (15.10). For 18–19.10 there are no new confirmed strikes on russian territory in the material read; russian regional authorities (Voronezh and Rostov regions, Tatarstan, Tula region) reported shooting down drones without naming any facilities or consequences. Confirmations often appear later in the day.

unverifiedISW: the assessments for 18.10 and 19.10 could not be found; the assessment for 17.10 from the previous issue remains current. The ISW layer “Assessed Control of Terrain in Ukraine” was last changed on 18.10 at 01:34 Kyiv time (ArcGIS metadata), but its geometry could not be obtained.

unverifiedUkrainian intelligence: russia’s budget deficit for nine months exceeded the annual plan by 37% (according to a Ukrinform headline, 19.10 07:22; the text was not read, and which intelligence service and what source were not established).

unverifiedThe Guardian (according to a Ukrinform headline, 19.10 05:19): russian attacks on ships in the Black Sea are bringing the war closer to NATO’s shores. The text of the article was not read.

📞unverifiedZelensky and Trump’s envoys. According to Axios (Barak Ravid, 18.10), Zelensky spoke with Witkoff and Kushner for about 40 minutes — the first conversation with senior US officials since Trump approved the russian diesel deal 10 days ago; they discussed tensions in the relationship and US efforts to restart negotiations with russia, and Zelensky proposed an in-person meeting in the coming days. Axios does not name the source of the details of the call. Separately, on NBC’s “Meet the Press” (18.10) Zelensky suggested that the Starlink and Starshield restrictions were a decision of both the White House and SpaceX, and said that if the restrictions were lifted the service would be restored immediately. There is no official readout of the call.

drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table

🛰️Intelligence. Zelensky said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” (according to Ukrinform, 16:51 18.10) that the US has resumed intelligence sharing with Ukraine: “We are very grateful for this. Now everything works.” The material does not specify when the sharing was halted and resumed.

🛢️unverified Iran. Ukrinform (19.10, 01:47) reports that Iran has again offered the US to open the Strait of Hormuz and resume negotiations; the text of the article was not read.

🕊️💰Sanctions and Zelensky. In a Truth Social post (according to Ukrinform, 19.10 00:34; Axios, 18.10) Trump wrote that he does not want to do anything that would “drive, foolishly, russia away from the bargaining table” (quote per Axios); his “decision on russia is very simple”, he is conducting peace negotiations. As retold by Ukrinform, he added that he can sign “this document” at any time (presumably the “Graham law” sanctions; Trump himself did not name them), accused Ukraine of striking russian refineries, which harms the global diesel market, including the American one, and said: “He doesn’t want to end this war and probably never did” (about Zelensky; translated from Ukrinform’s Ukrainian, the English original was not read). He offered no evidence. Context: on 16–17.10 Trump signed an executive order suspending sanctions and tariffs under the “Graham law” (Axios, 17.10).

drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table

🚧unverifiedEurope. Trump urged France to close its borders to migrants amid mass riots (according to a Ukrinform headline, 18.10 17:40; the text was not read).

🛢️ Iran. No new statements by Trump on Iran for 18–19 October were found in the material read. No funny verified episode from Trump’s day could be found, so there is no such item today.

Chris Wright, US Energy Secretary, on CNN’s “State of the Union” on 18 October (according to Axios): russia benefits from the diesel deal only if it scales down the war enough to increase exports; on ABC’s “This Week” he called the deal an “incentive” for an “energy ceasefire”. The administration’s explanations diverge: Marco Rubio said on 17.10 that russia would have sold this diesel anyway; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on “Meet the Press” cited the 2025 sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil: “No one has been tougher on russian sanctions than President Trump”.

This is a carrot to try to end a war. It's not an economic lifeline for Russia.

US Congress. According to Axios (17–18.10), the sanctions waiver was criticised by Republicans: Senator Thom Tillis called it “beyond irresponsible”, John Cornyn said “Lindsey would be appalled”, Ted Cruz called it a “mistake”; Congressman French Hill asked for a closed briefing. Democrats Chuck Schumer and Don Beyer called the decision a concession to Putin. A White House statement (spokeswoman Taylor Rogers): applying sanctions “now” would hinder US efforts to reach a lasting agreement.

beyond irresponsible

China. No statements by PRC officials on Trump’s sanctions order or the war in Ukraine for 18–19 October were found.

🗣️Putin, Peskov, Lavrov, Ushakov, Medvedev and the other listed officials on 18–19 October: no new statements on the war, negotiations, Ukraine or the US were found in the material read (Dmitriev’s latest statements of 17.10 were given in the issue of 18.10). No russian responses to the news of Zelensky’s 40-minute call with Witkoff and Kushner were found either.