russia’s strike potential: drones and missiles — output, launches, reserve
How many drones, ballistic and cruise missiles russia makes and launches each month, what is left in reserve and how long it would last — HUR estimates and three scenarios to 2027.
- Drones: output ≈8,000 a month (a year ago ≈3,950); October 2026: 8,740 launched, 109% of output.
- Ballistic missiles: output ≈88 a month (a year ago ≈78); October 2026: 150 launched, 171% of output; reserve 113–719 (HUR).
- Cruise missiles: output ≈125 a month (a year ago ≈118); October 2026: 80 launched, 64% of output; reserve 1,184–3,028 (HUR).
russia’s strike potential — an estimate
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How it is calculated
An estimate, not an inventory. Output and stocks are HUR estimates (a party to the war) as reported by the media; plans are not output. Launches up to September 2026 are monthly totals by AFP and other outlets from the Air Force’s morning reports on night attacks; they are a lower bound. October 2026 is the Air Force’s full monthly count: 8,740 drones and 230 missiles against ≈5,000 drones and ≈120 missiles in the morning reports, so part of October’s jump is a different way of counting. November is our daily count of the morning reports. Decoys (Gerbera, Parodiya) are counted with strike drones. Missiles of unnamed type are split between ballistic and cruise in proportion to the named ones if at least half are named; otherwise half and half. The launch rate in the forecast is the average of the latest months counted the same way as the last one. For drones there is no reserve estimate that includes decoys, so the panel shows how much was added to or taken from the reserve since October 2026. Glide bombs, artillery and strikes on frontline towns are not included.